Six Ways to Survive a Rush Hour MRT Ride by Joboy Quintos

The Manila Metro Rail Transit System (MRT-3) snakes through the entire length of Epifanio delos Santos Avenue (EDSA). It hauls an average of 500,000 commuters a day, way more than its capacity of 350,000. Together with the humid Manila climate, the open-air stations, and discourteous passengers, one's rush-hour MRT commute could turn into a harrowing experience.

Metro Manila Transportation Map (Photo from Wikimedia)

First things first, if you're totally befuddled at Manila's hit-or-miss public transport system, click the photo above to view the Manila Transportation Map - for all it's worth.

Photo from Wikipedia

 To the greenhorn MRT riders, the following tips could be helpful.

1.) Be an Early Bird

There's no better way to beat the morning crush by pre-empting its most congested time span. Manila's three central business districts in Ortigas, Bonifacio Global City, and Makati are located south of its most dense population concentrations. Hence, the rush hour action, if we can call it that, is at the southbound direction.

When riding southbound from the North Avenue station, it's best to board the train before 7:00 AM. After this time, the foot traffic increases significantly. Here's a handy tip: enter the North Avenue station at the Trinoma side, instead of the more crowded Southbound gate. MRT management allows passengers who get in at the Trinoma side to pass underneath a series of stairwells right up to the soutbound side.

More importantly, train breakdowns are common occurences. Bear in mind that the MRT-3 has been running over its designed capacity all these years. Not even the most stringent of maintenance routines can prevent the eventuality of overloaded trains conking out!

2.) Purchase a Stored Value Ticket

If you're boarding the train at rush hour, queing to buy a single-journey ticket could eat up half of your travel time. To escape the snaking, slow-moving lines, a Php 100-stored value ticket is the answer. Riding the entire length of the line costs P15. You can use your stored value ticket seven times. Remember that even if your card has only P1 left in value, you get a free ride.

3.) Protect your Valuables

With a sizable chunk of Filipinos living below the poverty line, Manila has its fair share of thieves, scoundrels and scalawags. The crowded confines of the coaches are fertile ground for these pick pockets. It's better to err on the side of caution - and paranoia. Instead of putting your wallet and mobile phone inside your pant pockets, it is best to put those valuables deep inside your bag. If you're wearing a back pack, carry the bag in front of you.

 Coaches aren't always this spacious. (Photo from Wikimedia)

And don't forget to put on your street face. It might just help in making you a less likely target.

4.) Bring an Extra Shirt

The Philippines is a tropical country. For all the advantages a warm climate offers (i.e. you can't freeze to death, you don't wear several layers of clothing), living in a place where noon-time temperatures can reach 36 degrees Celsius in summer can be quite stifling. Since the coaches are almost always crowded, the commuter should be armed with a spare shirt. 

If you're a salaryman/woman, you might want to neatly fold your work clothes inside your bag. Coming to work in slightly creased clothing is way better than being clad in sweat-drenched business attire.

5.)  Park and Ride

The Trinoma mall offers a cost-effect park and ride system for MRT commuters. Riders can park their automobiles at the strategically placed North Avenue carpark building of the mall for a mere P50 flat rate (during weekdays only). Just remember not to go beyond the 2:00 AM cut-off, lest you be charged the overnight parking rate of P150.

Read: "Trinoma Park and Ride"

6.) Box-out

During rush hour, Filipino patrons of the MRT could get quite rude. As soon as the train doors slide open, the disembarking passengers are instantly pushed by an onslaught of warm bodies. In the rat race to get home early and fast (and cheap at that!), proper manners are quickly forgotten.

MRT riders aren't always this orderly. (Photo from Wikimedia)

Hence, the alighting passengers (as well as those about to board) should possess decent boxing out technique, especially when disembarking (or boarding) at the most crowded stations (Ayala Station, Shaw Boulevard Station, Quezon Avenue and Cubao). Most Filipino males are no strangers to boxing out. After all, there is a basketball in practically every corner in Metro Manila.

In this day and age of high fuel prices and global warming, taking public transportation is the answer to rid your wallet of gas expense and to do your bit for the environment. The MRT, in spite (or because of) its relatively cheaper fares offer a distinct cost-advantage for the price-conscious Filipino commuter. Despite its inherent ills, one's MRT riding experience need not be stressful.

The Flooded Quezon Avenue/EDSA Intersection by Joboy Quintos

A good part of Metro Manila and the surrounding provinces have been stricken by massive flooding the past few days. The monsoon rains have been unexpectedly strong of late, due to confluence of weather patterns. The crowded metropolis, with its clogged drainage systems and poorly planned urban and suburban centers, drowned in a sea of dirty floodwater. The low-lying areas near the riverbanks were hit particularly hard, reminding many of the fearsome deluge of Ondoy three years ago. 

The social networks and mainstream media beamed images of the floods in real-time. It was heart-wrenching to see our city and our countrymen stricken with so much suffering.

Thankfully, our house is situated in a relatively flood-free part of Quezon City. At worst, I was merely inconvenienced by the flooding. 

The sight of the SM Centris Pond greeted the MRT passengers.

I was supposed to ride a jeepney to Tandang Sora from my usual MRT stop in Quezon Avenue/Centris. However, floodwaters rose to about a meter-high, making the vital artery impassable to vehicles. Save for a few brave and foolish drivers who forded the flooded highway, EDSA became a long parking lot of stranded vehicles. 

 

Marooned. Almost.

Commuters disembarking from the MRT station were more or less trapped, since the SM Centris mall remained shuttered. Some chose to wade through the murky flood waters. Take note that the brilliant minds behind the Eton-Centris facility built over the drainage channels or esteros, which was the most likely cause for the flooding. They could have at least opened the mall doors to their so-called "valued customers."

CLOSED.

I had no other recourse but to turn back and head to the nearby Trinoma station by train. Thankfully, I got home safe, clean, and dry.

Market Situationer (10-14 September 2012) by Joboy Quintos

Government Securities
Yields for last Tuesday’s 10-year Treasury Bond auction stayed within market expectations. The new issue fetched a coupon rate of 4.75%, with the Bureau of Treasury awarding the full P9.0 billion allocation. Total tenders amounted to P44.155 billion, the largest since January 2012. A liquid market and expectations of monetary stimulus abroad fueled the strong demand.

Market players continued to buy securities at the 7- to 10-year tenors, in anticipation of the upcoming bond swap in the fourth quarter of the year. The BTr is set to issue new 5-, 7-, 10-, 15-, 20-, and 25-year tenors in huge amounts (total of at least P300 billion). Doing so would create liquidity in the aforesaid tenors. Since the 7- to 10-year tenors have seen little movement the past months, proprietary traders have realized value in these securities.

The 20-year FXTN 20-17 traded sideways with an upward bias, trading at 5.565% to 5.615% the entire week. The 10-year FXTNs, fell by 8 bps, on average, as 7-year papers dipped by 7 bps. There were hardly any surprises in terms of policy moves last week, as the Monetary Board kept benchmark rates unchanged and revised the 2012 and 2013 inflation forecasts higher – but still within the 3-5% target.

In light of the renewed market interest in the aforesaid tenors, the yield curve was flatter when comparing 2- and 10-year debt (224 bps from 232 bps) and 5- and 10-year securities (0.364 bps from 0.495 bps). Total weekly volume for the secondary GS market amounted to P122.16 billion.

Foreign Exchange
Monetary easing in Europe and in the United States bolstered emerging market currencies and assets. The prospect of lower interest rates in the developed world makes higher-yielding emerging market a more attractive destination for capital flows. Hence, the Peso reached consecutive 4-year highs last week against the U.S. Dollar. The local currency capped the week at P41.42 (+ 0.33) versus the greenback, gaining a total of P0.26 in five days of trading. Total weekly volume for the USD-PHP spot market amounted to $4,506.05 million.

Stock Market
Likewise, the local equities market benefited from the developments abroad. The PSEi surged by a total of 121.15 points last week, closing at 5,322.47 (+ 81.97) on Friday. Total weekly volume amounted to P27.33 billion.

Sources: Business World, PDEX, Philippine Daily Inquirer, Bloomberg

Market Situationer (3-7 September 2012) by Joboy Quintos

Government Securities

The Bureau of Treasury chose to grant a full award of last week’s Treasury Bill auction, despite higher yields in the 182- and 364-day tenors. The 91-day T-Bills fetched an average of 1.249% (- 20.3 bps), as 182- and 364-day papers yielded 1.713% (+ 4.2 bps) and 2.22% (+ 27 bps), respectively. Total tenders soared to a total of P18.72 billion. 

Expectations of monetary policy easing in the United States and in the European Union overshadowed local inflation concerns. Higher-than-expected 3.8% inflation for the month of August failed to dampen the market’s mood, as secondary market yields continued to fall despite some knee-jerk selling. The ECB’s announcement of an “unlimited bond-buying” regime for tenors up to 3 years on Thursday did much to prop up the confidence of the market. 

Throughout last week, yields fell by an average of 8-15 bps, with market players favoring 5-, 10- and 20-year securities. There was renewed interest on FXTNs at the belly of the yield curve, in light of the higher inflation expectations in the near-term. FXTN 20-17 fell from 5.62% at the start of the week to 5.525% by Friday morning. The 5- and 10-year FXTNs, meanwhile, shed 15 bps and 11 bps, respectively.

The yield curve became flatter as a result of the decline in yields. The difference between 2- and 20-year debt fell to 311 bps last Friday from 318 bps the week earlier. Total weekly volume reached P171.74 billion.

Foreign Exchange

The Peso gained a total of P0.38 throughout the entire week, amidst expectations of monetary stimulus in the Eurozone and in the United States. From P41.98 (+ 0.08) on Monday, the local currency capped the week at P41.38 (+ 0.19). Total weekly volume for the USD-PHP spot market amounted to $4,119.84 million.

Stock Market

Despite finishing in the red at the early parts of the week due to Moody’s downgrade of the EU credit outlook, the PSEi managed to eke out a modest weekly gain of 5.13 points.  From a weekly low of 5,150.81 (-25.06) on Wednesday, the main index closed the week at 5,201.32 (+ 51.21). Total weekly volume amounted to P21.37 billion.

Rates Forecast

Traders interviewed by Business World saw the coupon rate for this Tuesday’s new 10-year issue to range from 4.75% to 4.875%.  In the secondary market last week, 10-year papers were trading at 4.715%.  Near-term inflation pressures brought about by domestic and foreign factors could result into marginally higher yields in the auction.

Despite prospects of bond buying in Europe and in the U.S, another rate by the Monetary Board seem less likely in light of the aforesaid inflation uptick brought about by the recent floods.   

Sources: Business World, PDEX, Philippine Daily Inquirer, Bloomberg

Market Situationer (28-31 August 2012) by Joboy Quintos

Government Securities
There was strong demand for last week’s 7-year Treasury Bond auction, with total tenders amounting to P24.96 billion for the fully awarded P9.0 billion offer. The new issue fetched a coupon rate of 4.75%, slightly higher than the prevailing PDST-R1 rate of 4.725% the morning prior to the auction. 

Secondary market rates fell by around 4-5 bps last week amidst Governor Tetangco’s statement saying that the flood-driven price pressures are just temporary. Robust 2Q 2012 domestic growth and speculation of QE3 in the U.S. could have also bolstered demand for Peso-denominated assets. FXTN 20-17 fell from 5.66% on Tuesday to a low of 5.6395% on Friday afternoon. 

The slight decrease in long-term GS yields resulted into a marginally flatter yield curve week-on-week, as the difference between 2- and 20-year debt declined to 319 bps from 321 bps. Total weekly volume amounted to P66.608 billion, more than double the previous week’s turnover of P32.306 billion.

Foreign Exchange
Global growth concerns, Dollar demand, and a gradually increasing trade deficit saw the Peso depreciate by P0.18 against the U.S. Dollar in the first two days of trading. The local currency closed at P42.345 (- 0.05) on Tuesday. Despite renewed European debt concerns, strong domestic 2Q 2012 GDP growth enabled the Peso to bounce back in the subsequent days, capping the week at P42.060 (+ 0.17). Total weekly volume for the USD-PHP spot market amounted to $3,183.58 million. 

Stock Market
Local stocks gained throughout most of last week amidst bargain-hunting, robust local economic data, and some month-end window dressing. Despite a 46.41 point drop in the PSEi on Thursday brought about by global growth worries, the main index capped the week at 5,196.19 (+ 46.88), gaining a total of 52.84 points throughout the four-day trading week. Total weekly volume amounted to P20.639 billion.

Rates Forecast
Traders interviewed by Business World saw average rates for this Monday’s Treasury Bill auction falling by 5-10 bps, on “ample liquidity in the system and bullishness among investors” on robust economic data. The 91-, 182-, and 364-day T-Bills last fetched average yields of 1.452% ( - 4.3 bps), 1.671% (- 12.4 bps), and 2.125% (- 22.5 bps), respectively.

Inflation data will be released this Thursday, so expect CPI expectations to dictate the tempo of trading. A Business World poll yielded a median estimate of 3.55%, within the higher end of the 2.8-3.8% BSP outlook this month – higher than July 2012’s 3.2%. 

Sources: Business World, PDEX, Philippine Daily Inquirer, Bloomberg

Market Situationer (22-24 August 2012) by Joboy Quintos

Government Securities
Treasury  Bill  rates  again  fell  during  last  Wednesday’s  auction,  amidst  demand  for  short-term  government  securities. Average yields for 91-, 182-, and 364-day T-Bills fetched 1.452% (- 4.3 bps), 1.671% (- 12.4 bps), and 2.125% (- 22.5 bps), respectively. The auction was fully awarded at P7.0 billion. Total tenders amounted to P13.371 billion. 

The 235%  month-on-month  increase  in  the  budget  deficit  (from  P11.70  billion  in  June  to  P39.25  billion  in  July)  compounded expectations of flood-induced inflation pressures. As a result, secondary GS market rates traded sideways with an upward bias. Most of the limited market activity was again focused on the longer tenors, particularly in the 20-year securities. FXTN 20-17 traded between 5.66% and 5.68%, while RTB 20-1 ranged from 5.71%  - 5.7175%  - hardly changed from the closing yields of 17 August. 

Foreign Exchange
The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) comments that additional monetary stimulus might be needed should the U.S. economy continue to exhibit signs of weakness, bolstered the Philippine Peso. Another round of debt purchases in the US “would entail the printing of dollars that would weaken the U.S currency,” according to the minutes of the FOMC meeting reported in Business World. As a result, the Peso gained P0.31 against the Dollar in the first two days of the abbreviated work week, closing at P42.110 (+ 0.18) on Thursday. Concerns about the measures taken to deal with the European debt crisis and concerns about slowdown in the U.S. and Chinese economies boded ill for the local currency, as it capped the week at P42.165 (-0.055). Total weekly volume amounted to $2,793.61 million.    

Stock Market
The PSEi retreated by 54.66 points to close at 5,152.15 on Wednesday, as local stock prices were negatively affected by worse-than-expected Japanese exports data, according to analysts interviewed by Business World.  The main index rebounded by 50.69 points  (5,202.84) the next day, amidst talk of QE3, but fell by another 59.49 points on Friday on global growth concerns. The PSEi closed the week at 5,143.35 (-59.49). Total weekly volume amounted to P12.15 billion.

Rates Forecast
Expect the coupon rate for next week new, 7-year Treasury Bond issuance (FXTN 7-55) to range from 4.75 – 4.875%. Bids higher than 4.875% might merit a rejection from the Bureau of Treasury. The closest 7-year security in the secondary market last fetched 4.72% on 17 August, with the PDST-F and PDST-R2 yields on 24 Aug at 4.9296% and 4.725%, respectively.

Although there is a sizable RTB maturity on the 24th of September (Php 30 billion), secondary market trading next week will be primarily dictated by the results of the 7-year auction and market expectations of August inflation data (to be released on 5 September). Rates in the secondary market could trade sideways with an upward bias next week.

Sources: Business World, PDEX, Philippine Daily Inquirer, Bloomberg

Market Situationer (13-17 August 2012) by Joboy Quintos

Government Securities
Last week’s 91- and 182- day T-Bill average yields fell amidst strong demand in the auction, as investors looked for “short-term investments where they can temporarily park their funds,” according to the National Treasurer. Average yields for the 91- and 182-day bills fetched 1.495% (- 30.5 bps) and 1.795% (- 32.2 bps), while 364-day bills dropped 14.3 bps to 2.422%. Total tenders for the partially awarded auction amounted to P21.30 billion. The BTr capped the awards for 364-day bills at P3.6 billion, as it issued a total of P7.1 billion worth of short-term debt out of the P7.5 billion offer.

With the workweek cut short by the monsoon rains and metro-wide flooding, trading volumes were relatively light the entire week. News of higher inflation in July 2012 and price-driven pressures brought about the massive flooding dampened the market’s mood, resulting into a gradual climb in secondary market rates towards the end of the week. Yields for the 19-year FXTN 20-17 rose to 5.60% from 5.535% at the start of the week. Likewise, the 20-year RTB 20-1 gained 8 bps to cap the week at 5.675%.

Higher long-term GS yields resulted in a steeper yield curve, as the difference between 2- and 20-year debt increased to 309 bps from 300 bps the week earlier. Trading volume for the week fell to P44,716.11 million from P109,787.83 million.

Foreign Exchange
With financial markets closed on Tuesday, market players sold some of their accumulated U.S. Dollar positions, resulting in a P0.065 appreciation for the Peso (P41.77). The local currency capped the week marginally weaker against the Dollar, as slower-than-expected Chinese exports growth stoked risk aversion (P41.885 -0.125). Total weekly volume for the USD-PHP spot market amounted to $2,945.66 million.

Stock Market
The PSEi surrendered 52.06 points (5,256.61) on Thursday, on “sluggish trading” and the perceived negative effects of the monsoon-induced flooding. The main index closed the week at 5,263.35 (+ 6.74). Total weekly volume amounted to P20.59 billion.

Rates Forecast
The coupon rate for next Tuesday’s 25-year Treasury Bond could range from 5.75% - 5.875%, as yields react to renewed inflation concerns. Last Friday’s 25-year PDST-R2 stood at 5.80%. Demand for the long dated paper is expected to be large, since most of the market appetite is centered on the longer end of the curve.

Expect the secondary market to trade sideways with an upward bias, should inflation worries over the near-term prevail.

Sources: Business World, PDEX, Philippine Daily Inquirer, Bloomberg

JUNK THE CYBERCRIME ACT

In a country that supposedly takes pride in its bloodless People Power Revolt of 1986, a draconian law has been passed curbing freedom of expression.

JUNK THE CYBERCRIME ACT

Read: "What’s frightening about the cybercrime law?"

Marlene Dietrich - Illusions

Market Situationer (13-17 August 2012) by Joboy Quintos

Government Securities
The newly issued 25-year FXTN fetched a coupon rate of 5.75% last Tuesday, which fell at the lower end of the market projections. Total tenders for the fully awarded P9.0 billion offer amounted to P26.26 billion.

Secondary market rates, particularly the longer dated securities, rose at the early parts of the week due to higher inflation expectations brought about by the recent flooding. FXTN 20-17 and RTB 20-1 peaked at 5.67% and 5.75%, respectively. The 20-year GS rose by an average of 10 bps from the closing rates on 10 August. The auction results and BSP statements that 2012 inflation would fall well within the 3-5% target somehow eased the selling pressure. As a result, rates for FXTN 20-17 dipped to 5.5925%, while RTB 20-1 fell to 5.65%.

Towards the end of the week, however, trading volumes thinned as the market approached the so-called “ghost month.” In addition, better than expected U.S. retail sales and housing permits resulted in a sharp increase in longer-dated U.S. Treasuries. Hence, demand for riskier assets like Peso-denominated securities declined, as shown by the P0.405 depreciation of the local currency against the U.S. Dollar. FXTN 20-17 closed the week at 5.685%, while RTB 20-1 ended the week at 5.72%.

The difference between 2- and 20-year debt rose to 318 bps from 309 bps the previous week. Higher rates in the longer end of the curve resulted into a steeper yield curve. Total weekly volume amounted to P74.16 billion, up from P31.706 billion.

Foreign Exchange
The U.S. Dollar strengthened against the Peso the entire week as the U.S. economy exhibited signs of recovery (higher-than-expected retail sales and housing permits). A stronger U.S. economy makes the prospect of another round of quantitative easing less likely. From P41.930 (-0.045) on Monday, the Peso capped the week at P42.42, depreciating by a total of P0.535 against the Dollar. Total weekly volume for the USD-PHP spot market amounted to $4,456.65 million.

Stock Market
The PSEi traded sideways with an upward bias in the first three days of trading, amidst an absence of major leads. The main index closed at 5,266.66 (+0.72) on Wednesday, before surrendering -47.15 points the next day (5,219.51) as market players cashed in profits ahead of the four-day weekend. The PSEi capped the week at 5,206.81. Total weekly volume of trades amounted to P21.06 billion.

Rates Forecast
Market players could again flock to the safety of shorter term Treasury Bills. However, foreign funds might shun Peso-denominated securities amidst the relatively higher U.S. Treasury rates and the recovery signs shown by the U.S. economy. Average yields for the Treasury Bill auction on Wednesday could move sideways with an upward bias, as a result. The 91-, 182-, and 364-day T-Bills last fetched average yields of 1.495% (- 30 bps), 1.795% (+ 32.2 bps), and 2.422% (+ 14.3 bps), respectively.

The bearish sentiment in local GS market might persist in the near-term.

Sources: Business World, PDEX, Philippine Daily Inquirer, Bloomberg