Government Securities
The newly issued 25-year FXTN fetched a coupon rate of 5.75% last Tuesday, which fell at the lower end of the market projections. Total tenders for the fully awarded P9.0 billion offer amounted to P26.26 billion.
Secondary market rates, particularly the longer dated securities, rose at the early parts of the week due to higher inflation expectations brought about by the recent flooding. FXTN 20-17 and RTB 20-1 peaked at 5.67% and 5.75%, respectively. The 20-year GS rose by an average of 10 bps from the closing rates on 10 August. The auction results and BSP statements that 2012 inflation would fall well within the 3-5% target somehow eased the selling pressure. As a result, rates for FXTN 20-17 dipped to 5.5925%, while RTB 20-1 fell to 5.65%.
The newly issued 25-year FXTN fetched a coupon rate of 5.75% last Tuesday, which fell at the lower end of the market projections. Total tenders for the fully awarded P9.0 billion offer amounted to P26.26 billion.
Secondary market rates, particularly the longer dated securities, rose at the early parts of the week due to higher inflation expectations brought about by the recent flooding. FXTN 20-17 and RTB 20-1 peaked at 5.67% and 5.75%, respectively. The 20-year GS rose by an average of 10 bps from the closing rates on 10 August. The auction results and BSP statements that 2012 inflation would fall well within the 3-5% target somehow eased the selling pressure. As a result, rates for FXTN 20-17 dipped to 5.5925%, while RTB 20-1 fell to 5.65%.
Towards the end of the week, however, trading volumes thinned as the market approached the so-called “ghost month.” In addition, better than expected U.S. retail sales and housing permits resulted in a sharp increase in longer-dated U.S. Treasuries. Hence, demand for riskier assets like Peso-denominated securities declined, as shown by the P0.405 depreciation of the local currency against the U.S. Dollar. FXTN 20-17 closed the week at 5.685%, while RTB 20-1 ended the week at 5.72%.
The difference between 2- and 20-year debt rose to 318 bps from 309 bps the previous week. Higher rates in the longer end of the curve resulted into a steeper yield curve. Total weekly volume amounted to P74.16 billion, up from P31.706 billion.
Foreign Exchange
The U.S. Dollar strengthened against the Peso the entire week as the U.S. economy exhibited signs of recovery (higher-than-expected retail sales and housing permits). A stronger U.S. economy makes the prospect of another round of quantitative easing less likely. From P41.930 (-0.045) on Monday, the Peso capped the week at P42.42, depreciating by a total of P0.535 against the Dollar. Total weekly volume for the USD-PHP spot market amounted to $4,456.65 million.
Stock Market
The PSEi traded sideways with an upward bias in the first three days of trading, amidst an absence of major leads. The main index closed at 5,266.66 (+0.72) on Wednesday, before surrendering -47.15 points the next day (5,219.51) as market players cashed in profits ahead of the four-day weekend. The PSEi capped the week at 5,206.81. Total weekly volume of trades amounted to P21.06 billion.
The difference between 2- and 20-year debt rose to 318 bps from 309 bps the previous week. Higher rates in the longer end of the curve resulted into a steeper yield curve. Total weekly volume amounted to P74.16 billion, up from P31.706 billion.
Foreign Exchange
The U.S. Dollar strengthened against the Peso the entire week as the U.S. economy exhibited signs of recovery (higher-than-expected retail sales and housing permits). A stronger U.S. economy makes the prospect of another round of quantitative easing less likely. From P41.930 (-0.045) on Monday, the Peso capped the week at P42.42, depreciating by a total of P0.535 against the Dollar. Total weekly volume for the USD-PHP spot market amounted to $4,456.65 million.
Stock Market
The PSEi traded sideways with an upward bias in the first three days of trading, amidst an absence of major leads. The main index closed at 5,266.66 (+0.72) on Wednesday, before surrendering -47.15 points the next day (5,219.51) as market players cashed in profits ahead of the four-day weekend. The PSEi capped the week at 5,206.81. Total weekly volume of trades amounted to P21.06 billion.
Rates Forecast
Market players could again flock to the safety of shorter term Treasury Bills. However, foreign funds might shun Peso-denominated securities amidst the relatively higher U.S. Treasury rates and the recovery signs shown by the U.S. economy. Average yields for the Treasury Bill auction on Wednesday could move sideways with an upward bias, as a result. The 91-, 182-, and 364-day T-Bills last fetched average yields of 1.495% (- 30 bps), 1.795% (+ 32.2 bps), and 2.422% (+ 14.3 bps), respectively.
The bearish sentiment in local GS market might persist in the near-term.
Market players could again flock to the safety of shorter term Treasury Bills. However, foreign funds might shun Peso-denominated securities amidst the relatively higher U.S. Treasury rates and the recovery signs shown by the U.S. economy. Average yields for the Treasury Bill auction on Wednesday could move sideways with an upward bias, as a result. The 91-, 182-, and 364-day T-Bills last fetched average yields of 1.495% (- 30 bps), 1.795% (+ 32.2 bps), and 2.422% (+ 14.3 bps), respectively.
The bearish sentiment in local GS market might persist in the near-term.
Sources: Business World, PDEX, Philippine Daily Inquirer, Bloomberg
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