I used to read the business pages as a kid, before the outbreak of the Asian Financial Crisis. I can still remember the USD-PHP exchange rate of P23 for USD1, My aunt tried to explain the basics of the foreign exchange dynamics, but my per-pubescent self could not absorb the concepts!
Fast forward to my finance class in college a decade later. I was taking up a business course (like everybody else). Mr. Ricky Pilar, my finance teacher, initiated a one-semester long mock-stock trading. We were required to submit a list of stocks to buy and the corresponding justifications for doing so. Even if I was a management economics major, my grasp of the equities market was practically non-existent. Despite my obtuse interest in economics, I considered finance and investment as big yawners.
Little did I know that I'll end up working for an investment house, trading government securities and tweaking spreadsheets and charts for a living.
I've developed a sensible grasp of world financial markets the past few years. Now that I've amassed some excess cash (a relatively negligible amount, really), the time is ripe to venture out of my overly conservative portfolio of savings accounts and insurance policies.
As a bond trader, I would have wanted to delve into the market I know best. But then again, odd-lots and retail volumes aren't conducive for sizable trading gains. Besides, local government securities are near all-time lows, falling by considerably the past two years.
The only viable investment outlet is the local stock market. With the PSEi up 20% year-to-date, it is best to wait for a good buying opportunity. For now, I'm in the process of setting up a BPI Trade account. I'm still at a loss on what particular stock to choose, in light of my unfamiliarity with the market. Thankfully, there is a wealth of information available from the following sources:
2.) Bloomberg charts
4.) Tsupitero (I'm not that keen on technical analysis, but the insights of Tsupitero are interesting.)
Despite
the rosy prospects of growth for the Philippines, the global
macro-setting is still hounded by the Euro zone debt woes, not to
mention signs of a slowing Chinese economy. Even if the Philippines'
consumption-driven domestic market is sizable, we're still bound to feel
the effects of slower export volumes to our main trading partners and
potential outflows of fickle foreign portfolio investments. The lifeblood of this nation, OFW
remittances, could suffer to some extent as unemployment levels in the
developed world remain high.
As the great, however fictional, Sir Harry Pearce of Spooks
fame puts it, one must "tread lightly" under the circumstances.
No comments:
Post a Comment